According to Counterpoint Technology Market Research’s Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast, global smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to drop by 5% year-over-year (YoY) to reach 1.2 billion, the lowest level in nearly a decade.
In 4Q 2023, shipments are anticipated to rise by 3% YoY to 312 million units.
Shipments between Europe and North America (NAM) are anticipated to stay unchanged. However, China and emerging markets like those in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) and India have recovered from their downturns and will take the lead in driving the smartphone market’s growth starting in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Apple, the market leader in 4Q with its recently released series, is predicted to see a 3% YoY decline in volume in 4Q 2023, mostly as a result of Huawei’s pushy expansion into China and Japan’s protracted holdoff on smartphone upgrades. Apple will attempt to make up for its poor volume performance, though, by growing in value terms and improving its product mix. The iPhone 14 Pro series accounted for 61% of all iPhone 14 series shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, it is anticipated that the share of the iPhone 15 series that belongs to the iPhone 15 Pro series will rise to 65% in 4Q 2023.
Shipments of smartphones worldwide, 2013–2024
Smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in 2024 after destocking efforts conclude with a reasonably healthy inventory by year’s end. A rebound that is concentrated on emerging markets and supported by rising consumer confidence and better macroeconomic circumstances is something else we can anticipate.
Apple will experience pressure in its traditional markets in 2024, but it will still be growing along with the market. Apple’s growth is predicted to be hampered through 2024 by the US government’s persistence of high interest rates, which will reduce consumer spending, and the growing competition in China’s premium smartphone market, primarily from Huawei.
Huawei had great success in Q32023, helped by its recently released Mate 60 5G series and its older P-series 4G devices. In 2024, the brand is predicted to grow 37% YoY if Huawei is successful in partnering to increase the production of its Kirin SoCs.
“India, maintaining its momentum for premiumization, is expected to become Apple’s new growth focus,” Associate Director Liz Lee stated. Apple is expected to increase its shipments to India by 23% YoY in 2024. All the same, Apple’s global market share will inevitably decline slightly YoY in 4Q 2023 and throughout 2024 due to its underperformance against Huawei in China.
